I read an interesting article yesterday posted on Mexidata written by Brian Flock, a realtor in Baja California. He notes the misconception about excess real estate inventory on the market in Baja California and how much of this inventory (particularly condominiums) is only "virtual."
His point is that when asking whether Baja California is overbuilt with excess inventory, the answer is a qualified "No" if you take into account that much of this excess "inventory" is in fact not yet built. It is in the form of proposed (i.e. virtual) condos or vacation housing that may be for sale but hasn't yet come out of the ground. He contrasts this phenomenon of "virtual" inventory with actual inventory that exists in places like Miami today - where already-built condominiums sit empty and for sale. In places like Baja California and Puerto Peñasco (Rocky Point), this "virtual" inventory can easily be retired, simply by the developer deciding to postpone or not carry through on a project (and returning any deposits to pre-construction buyers).
This topic is certainly germane to Puerto Peñasco, where much of the excess inventory in the market is actually only in the form of proposed condominiums. New projects with hundreds of condos have been anounced in Puerto Peñasco over the last year and sales offices have opened everywhere. What is key to remember is that these sales offices don't necessarily signify inventory that must be sold. They can just as easily have unsuccessful sales efforts and decide not to proceed or to postpone their project. In fact, this is what is happening today as the Puerto Peñasco market goes through a correction. Several larger sales operations for new condominium developments have shuttered their doors in recent months while waiting for the U.S. feeder markets to regain their legs.
One of the reasons (that Mr. Flock correctly cites in his article) that this virtual inventory exists and is figured into the Mexican real estate markets is that in Mexico over the last several years, developers haven't had to jump through the usual hoops to get a condominium development out of the ground and completed. Many of the larger condominium developments in Puerto Peñasco built in the last 10 years have been financed solely with deposits from pre-sales of condominiums. So in the past, everything that has been proposed and begun sales efforts has been counted as inventory on the market.
Now that the market has tightened, developers are being forced to obtain construction loans to build a project. And obtaining a construction loan in these days of tight credit markets requires a developer to prove they have the wherewithal to get a project sold and built (with the major hurdle these days being getting a significant number of pre-sales). So in reality, Puerto Peñasco condominium inventory today should include only condominium developments that have their full construction financing and are being built.
All of this is very healthy for the Puerto Peñasco real estate market and will allow it to recover quicker and in a stronger position than a market with a lot of already built - but empty - homes or condos. Builders unable to get construction financing for recently introduced Puerto Peñasco projects will sit on the sidelines until better times - thus instantly reducing the amount of "virtual" inventory for sale in the market. And buyers will gravitate to projects that are properly financed and are getting built - reducing actual inventory on the market. Effectively, rational buyers will move any sales deposits they have in projects that don't appear that they will get built to projects that are actually getting built - consolidating sales in a smaller number of projects. (That being said, if you have a deposit down with a development, check with the developer about their plans for financing and timeline for moving forward before hastily trying to get your deposit back. You most likely have signed a contract that makes your deposit non-refundable unless the project will definitely not get built.)
This gravitation by buyers to the projects that are getting built will also naturally protect them by ensuring that their initial down payments are going towards projects that will be completed and delivered.
As the actual inventory begins to clear out of the market faster, other projects waiting in the wings will start to be re-introduced and a more reasonable and sustainable pace of development in Puerto Peñasco will ensue, assisted by the new commercial developments in town, the new international airport, coastal highway and other infrastructure improvements. Puerto Peñasco has a bright future and elimination of some of this "virtual" condominium inventory today will help the town move into a period of sustained development.
I encourage everyone to read Mr. Flock's article as he states his case much more eloquently than I - and makes a good argument for buyers purchasing now while deals are good (with which I agree). When reading his article, simply substitute Puerto Peñasco for Baja California (yes, our ocean is warmer, our real estate prices are lower and our shrimp is much tastier). It can be read here.